Good morning, traders.
Let’s not sugarcoat it — the markets are in a weird place.
Rates spiked massively on Friday on the realization that China has a lot of U.S. Treasuries it can sell. The S&P got slammed 3.5% on Thursday, as the previous day’s rally hit a wall and China trade tensions lit the fuse.
For the week, the S&P swung wildly across a 646-point range.
Tariff twists and retaliations have consumed the market’s attention. And it’s easy to let them consume yours too.
But the economy continues to function. And you can’t lose sight of the data that keeps you ahead of the curve, rather than reacting to headlines.
Last week, we got an update on inflation. It has cooled, as CPI and PPI both showed prices rising at a slower pace over the past year.
That cooling increases the Fed’s wiggle room to cut should tariff wars ultimately push markets over the edge.
But this week, we’ll see just how much room the Fed has to maneuver by watching this one key stat …
Watch the Consumer
It’s a light’ish week in terms of key reports. But these are the most important cues to take from the latest data:
- Retail Sales (Tuesday) – The main event. A weak number here could hit sentiment even harder.
- Industrial Production (Tuesday) – A good gauge of real economic activity. Weakness here would support the thesis that things are slowing.
If retail sales are strong, the market might take that as a sign that the economy can hold.
But don’t expect stocks to rally off it — not in a big way. It would also mean the Fed has less reason to cut.
If sales disappoint? That’s when things could get interesting.
If you’re holding anything with heavy exposure to consumer spending (think retail, travel, discretionary), be careful.
Volatility around that number could be sharp.
Don’t Fight the Tape — Think Strategically
In a market like this, you’ve got to stay nimble. This isn’t the time to load up and pray.
It’s about timing, precision, and reading the room.
If the market starts rotating into defensive names (health care, utilities, staples), don’t argue — follow the money.
If yields keep climbing, tech and high-multiple growth stocks could struggle. Keep your watchlist clean and your position sizes tight.
More important, use options to create asymmetric setups.
Everyone’s watching the same numbers, but most traders are reacting after the move.
You want to be in before the crowd panics. That’s how you make gains in this kind of tape.
Above all, stay flexible.
This week could move fast. Be ready to move faster.
Game on,
Jeff
Looking to up your game? Get the latest from Danny Phee Wednesday, April 16, at 4 p.m. ET.
He’ll give the lowdown on my proprietary AI-powered GAMMA CODE system, which can detect useful market glitches in real time, leading to explosive gains like 216% on CHWY calls in 24 hours* and 200% on QCOM puts in 48 hours!*
Stop missing out on slam-dunk setups — Click here now to claim a GAMMA CODE membership.
*Past performance does not indicate future results
