There’s this weird superstition that floats around every year called the “October Effect.”
You’ve probably heard it: October is when markets fall apart.
And at times markets really have nosedived in the 10th month of the year, including:
- The 1929 crash that sparked the Great Depression
- Black Monday in ’87, when the Dow shed more than 22 points in a single day
- The dot.com bubble that hit bottom in October 2002
- The start of the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession
Yep, all October.
But what people sometimes miss is that, on the flipside, some of the best buying opportunities of the past century also happened in October.
So it’s not really about “doom.”
It’s more about inflection.
October is where the market flips the script, and it’s almost here.
I’ve got some thoughts on how we can make it a winning month in 2025.
Tricks and Treats
Historically, September is the weakest month of the year for the S&P 500, although it reached an all-time high earlier this week before pulling back on doubts about the AI rally.
But we’re heading into a pocket where volatility tends to spike, setups start moving faster, and the “real” trading season kicks in.
Why? Because we’re entering a trifecta of market-moving catalysts:
- Weekly jobless claims drop this morning
- PCE inflation numbers hit Friday
- And the FOMC meets again in late October, with a possible rate cut still on the table on Oct. 29
That last one is huge.
Traders are already starting to reposition for what Powell & Co. might do.
If inflation cools and job numbers continue to wobble, the pressure will build for the Fed to make a move.
You think big money is going to wait until Oct. 28 to start reacting?
No chance.
They’ll start placing bets now.
Don’t Get Spooked
I’ve traded through 20+ Octobers.
I remember the panic in ’08, the chaos in 2020 (although that didn’t happen in October), and everything in between.
And every time the market looks “boring” in September, October turns it into a trader’s market — fast-moving, emotional, and full of opportunity for those who are ready.
This is the kind of stretch where being prepared matters more than being perfect.
That means:
- Knowing your setups
- Knowing your risk
- Knowing your levels before the market opens
Because when things heat up, you don’t want to be stuck reacting like the amateurs.
No Zombies Allowed
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for cleaner moves, you might be about to get them.
But be warned: October rewards preparation, not guessing.
Get your playbook ready now.
Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri
Want to hone your edge in this market? Join Aaron Hunziker Sunday at 4 p.m. ET in the APEXWar Room, where he’ll break down the trades he’s watching, what’s moving right now, and how to position smartly in this environment.
If you want to stay sharp and a step ahead of the crowd, be there.
*Past performance does not indicate future results
