The President promised the worst attack since World War II, aimed at Iran…
Four hours later, he wanted a deal.
There’s a lesson here…
I’m using it to trade.
This market has trained traders to buy war and sell peace on a two-day clock.
The problem is that the clock keeps resetting on Friday afternoon, and the people who know when it resets aren’t sharing their information…
Luckily, I’m a former industry insider.
I don’t need anyone to share their information with me, I come to my own conclusions based on how the market behaves.
Don’t fall for the same setup this week.
The Weekend Taco
Brent crude topped $100.50 on July 23 as the Iran war stretched past every Wall Street forecast.
It fell back below $100 not long after, but tensions remained high, and the $100 price level stayed within spitting distance.
Then Friday, July 31 arrived…
Trump’s annihilation headline hit the news and it spiked prices to $91.50. It was a textbook reaction. War talk: crude gets hit with a bid.
Then Trump walked back the threat, and started talking about deals.
That’s when Brent dove below $90 into the afternoon.
I call it the weekend taco trade.
The threat lands, the market pays up on the idea of higher oil prices, and then Trump decides he wants a deal after all…
You could set your watch to it.
A Select Few Are Partying
Crude didn’t roll over because traders read the news and changed their minds. It rolled over because the walk-back was known before it was announced…
People were ready.
Four hours between “the worst attack since World War II” and “these guys really want a deal” is not a change of heart. That’s a schedule.
While oil seemingly whipsawed at the whim of the President, there were people partying in clubs in South Beach, a short drive from where I live.
They weren’t reacting to the tape. They were the tape.
And if you want proof that it’s a pattern, look at Tuesday from this week. On August 4, crude walked up on more conflict noise, then dumped to $80 on another truce headline.
Twice inside three sessions.
That isn’t sentiment. That’s somebody’s calendar, and the market is along for the ride.
Why I Killed The Airline Trade
American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) had run three straight green sessions into July 30.
Stubborn crude was the entire thesis. Jet fuel is the largest variable cost an airline carries, and Brent parked in the nineties was going to sit on that stock like a weight.
Here’s the alert I sent at 2:30 P.M. ET on Thursday, July 30:
BUY AAL 8/7/26 $15.50 PUTS DEAD CAT BOUNCE IN AMERICAN UP 3 DAYS IN A ROW BUT STUBBORN OIL PRICES AND GENERAL BEARISH SHOULD RESUME DOWNWARD TEST OF $13 A SHARE.
AAL traded near $15.50 during my entry, so those contracts sat right at the money.
Then I gave an update on Friday morning at 9:53 A.M. ET:
EXIT AAL AT 2:00–3:00 P.M.
AAL opened near the highs from the week and I could feel a taco trade incoming. So I warned everyone that this was the last day for an exit.
Sure enough, the stock pushed higher into this week after rumors of peace deals reemerged.
My thesis was built on expensive jet fuel. And jet fuel turned cheaper thanks to Trump’s back track.
Therefore, the thesis was dead.
Position, Don’t Predict
I don’t know whether this war ends in a week, 6 weeks, or 6 months.
I don’t know whether next Friday’s headline will be real, or more theater.
Here’s my advice for new traders: Avoid the war catalyst altogether.
- It’s choppy.
- It swings back and forth.
- We’re at the whim of Trump’s calendar.
Don’t worry, there are plenty more catalysts to trade…
There’s a jobs number tomorrow (July 2026 employment report), CPI on the 12th, PPI on the 13th, and Nvidia earnings on the 26th.
Each of those catalysts can inspire stronger price action than a flip-floppy Iran war.
Identify major price swings, mark your levels, and look for retraces.
And stay vigilant on Fridays.
Stay Street Smart,
Jeff Zananiri
*Past performance does not indicate future results, Not typical.
