Sometimes the market tells me exactly what’s going to happen.
After decades of trading, it basically screams in my face…
And since my trading process is always the same, I clean house every time.
But this is not one of those times.
The war in Iran has turned every trading session into a guessing game.
Just last weekend, Iran rejected the U.S. ceasefire plan entirely and countered with its own 10-point proposal, demanding an end to international sanctions along with guarantees that it won’t be struck again.
These are comments from Iran’s diplomatic envoy in Cairo: “We won’t merely accept a ceasefire. We only accept an end of the war with guarantees that we won’t be attacked again.”
And now Iran has said it will continue the war “until deemed fit,” as Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz looms over the entire energy sector.
The market picture couldn’t be murkier. And if you’ve struggled to find your footing, you’re not alone.
But there’s a catalyst coming that cuts through all of this noise. And I’m positioning for it as we speak.
The Whipsaw Is Real
I’ve been trading oil from both sides of this war.
Last week, I covered my Puts on Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) as peace-talk optimism dragged the energy sector lower.
Then I flipped and traded the rally on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) when the selloff got overextended, and Iran denied everything.
Two trades, in opposite directions, in the same sector. And they were both winners.
But even for an experienced trader, this environment is exhausting.
Whatever the thesis is by the end of the day, it could flip by the next morning. That’s the reality of trading a geopolitical pendulum.
And most traders are getting eaten alive by this whipsaw. They chase the headlines, only to watch the next Truth Social post destroy their position in real time.
There’s a better way to play this week’s volatility…
Something Big Is Coming
The Iran war isn’t the only force moving the market right now.
While everyone is glued to Middle East headlines, something else is developing in the background.
Friday, April 10, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern.
That’s when the CPI data drops. The first inflation reading since the war with Iran began.
Jerome Powell and the Fed were already fighting alleged inflation from Trump’s tariffs way before a single missile was fired. Plus, the job market shows signs of stress, creating a tug-of-war for the Fed’s interest rate policy.
- Hold rates steady (or increase them) to control inflation.
- Lower rates to buoy the job market.
And now a full-scale Middle East conflict is added on top of an economy that’s already walking a tightrope.
Friday’s inflation report is the first hard evidence of where this economy actually stands right now.
Make no mistake: Friday will be a BIG day.
How To Trade It
If you’re new to trading, do yourself a favor this week…
Stop chasing wishy-washy oil plays driven by whatever Iran says next.
You’re not going to out-trade the geopolitical headline machine on your own. And you might not have enough capital to follow my day-to-day trades exactly…
So instead, wait for Friday.
Get positioned for concrete data and align your account with the direction the market moves once we know the numbers.
Now, it’s not as simple as “good data: buy Calls – bad data: buy Puts.”
Bullish CPI data could spike the price in premarket and then trigger a sharp intraday retracement as traders sell the news.
Bearish data could do the same thing in reverse. The market could drop hard, then bounce as buyers step in at support.
The data matters. But the chart matters more.
Find historical areas of support and resistance before Friday morning. And watch how the market reacts to the data before you enter anything.
Zero-day options allow us to ride that short-term volatility for exponential gains — but only if you’re patient enough to let the setup develop.
Friday’s inflation report will shine a bright (but brief) light on this murky market.
Capitalize on that clarity.
Stay Street Smart,
Jeff Zananiri
*Past performance does not indicate future results, Not typical.
