Good morning, traders…
Jeff here.
Let’s talk about Friday’s massive snapback rally.
The NASDAQ ripped up 2.7% — a big move. But there was one glaring issue … it happened on the lowest volume in three months.
That’s not a sign of strength — it’s a sign of a weak relief rally.
Then Monday came, and the market pushed even higher. The NASDAQ climbed another 1.2%. And the volume was even lower than Friday.
Two rallies in a row, both running on fumes. That’s not the kind of price action that screams confidence from big money.
When Wall Street institutions believe in a rally, they step in with size, which shows up in the daily trading volume. That’s not happening here.
Instead, this looks more like a typical relief rally after a violent pullback — one that could easily roll over again once traders realize there’s no real fuel behind it.
With that in mind, let’s dig into why this price action raises red flags, what catalysts could shake things up next, and the one strategy I’m using in this market…
The Indecision Zone
Markets do this all the time. Big selloffs shake people out, and then the major indexes bounce just enough to lure them back in.
Some stocks take off, others barely move, and before long, the market loses momentum again.
These kinds of deceptive rallies make trading really difficult.
Major indexes are in a weird “Indecision Zone” where it’s unclear if this is a true bottom or just a pause before another drop.
For now, it’s too soon for high-confidence trades.
The market isn’t giving clear signals, just a lot of noise — a terrible spot to take big swings.
Too early for puts, too weak for calls…
Why I’m Sitting Tight
When there’s no edge, there’s no reason to trade.
Every trade needs a real edge. A clean spot on the chart. A pattern that has a proven track record of playing out a certain way. And a clear point where it’s obvious that the trade is either working or not.
Right now, those setups aren’t there.
It’s not about having no opinion on the market. The way this bounce is shaping up, a retest of recent lows wouldn’t be surprising at all. But an opinion isn’t enough to risk real money.
The best trades happen when the market hands you an obvious opportunity. That’s not happening yet, so there’s no reason to force anything.
Sitting back and waiting doesn’t mean doing nothing. It means watching closely and being ready to act when the right moment comes.
That could mean waiting for confirmation of a rejection at a resistance level. Or waiting for strong buying volume to confirm the broader market structure actually has legs.
Only Taking Short-Term Plays
The one exception to sitting tight is short-term, small-size plays.
That means quick in-and-out trades that don’t require guessing where the market will be in a week…
Like Burn Notices — fast, tactical setups that capitalize on short moves without committing to a big directional bet.
These types of trades work in uncertain markets because they aren’t dependent on broader trends. They take advantage of specific setups that offer tight risk control and quick profit potential.
But even on those, I’m being extra cautious. And as far as bigger, longer-term swings — those are off the menu for now.
Tomorrow’s Fed Decision Could Shake Things Up
The next major event on the radar is tomorrow’s Fed decision.
Nobody expects them to change interest rates, but Powell’s comments will be what matters.
Recently, he’s been positive overall, saying “The economy is fine.”
But will he have the same message tomorrow?
Any shift in tone — hawkish or dovish — could trigger a major move in either direction.
Traders will be watching closely for any clues about the Fed’s next move and/or how Powell feels about the economy.
The way the market reacts will give us a better idea of whether this low-volume rally has any real staying power.
Until then, there’s no reason to make any heroic bets.
No Position Is a Position
Being on the sidelines is a valid strategy — don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
There’s no bonus for making unnecessary trades. You don’t get a participation trophy.
The goal isn’t just to make money — it’s to keep the money you make. Don’t give it back to the market.
Right now, with uncertainty this high and volume this low, staying solvent is the #1 priority.
The market will eventually give us some real, clear, solid opportunities. And when it does, we’ll be ready.
Until then, remember, the best trades are the ones you never make.
Stay disciplined,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. In a market this unpredictable, there’s no better strategy than Burn Notice trades…
They’re quick, overnight options plays that won’t overexpose you to broader market risk.
If you want to understand exactly how (and why) these trades are perfect in this environment…
Join Danny Phee for a LIVE BURN NOTICE WORKSHOP … TODAY March 18 at 12:00 p.m. EST
Stop guessing, start burning — Click here to reserve your seat.
*Past performance does not indicate future results
