Good morning, traders,
A storm of market-moving events is on deck this week, and it’s all converging around one of the most important speeches of the year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming this Friday.
If you’ve been trading long enough, you know when Powell speaks from Jackson Hole, markets listen — and react.
This is where central bankers signal shifts in monetary policy without saying it outright.
And right now, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Markets are already pricing in a 0.25% rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in September.
Traders are leaning heavily into the idea that the Fed will blink.
But the timing and tone of Powell’s speech will determine whether those bets pay off or get torched.
If he sounds dovish, it’ll pour gasoline on the rally we’ve seen lately in equities and bonds.
If he holds the line on staying restrictive — or worse, signals a “higher-for-longer” policy — watch out.
And this isn’t happening in a vacuum.
Plenty of other market-moving events are brewing, and here’s how to handle them.
Jobs and Inflation
On Thursday, just 24 hours before Powell’s speech, we’ll get two major data points: initial jobless claims and flash PMI numbers.
Jobless claims will show whether the labor market is cooling off or still running hot.
If claims drop, it signals strength, giving Powell cover to stay tight. If they rise, it might force his hand.
Flash PMI will give a read on manufacturing and services.
If both show contraction, it adds more pressure for the Fed to ease. If they surprise to the upside, it muddies the waters.
Retail’s Evolving Reality
Now, let’s shift to another part of the puzzle: earnings from retail giants.
Home Depot reports Tuesday, Target on Wednesday, and Walmart Thursday.
But these aren’t just retail earnings, they’re economic indicators in disguise.
These companies live at the intersection of supply chains, tariffs, labor costs, and consumer demand.
If damage from tariffs or inflation pressures are starting to hit margins or slow sales, we’re going to see it this week. Same with how the average consumer is holding up under the weight of higher rates.
Pay close attention to Walmart and Target commentary about back-to-school spending.
It’s one of the biggest seasonal retail periods of the year. If parents are pulling back there, it’s a red flag.
Agility Is Key
So what does this all mean for traders?
Opportunity — and risk.
First, understand this: Markets are hypersensitive right now.
Volatility is low, which makes any surprise move hit harder.
If Powell signals a more aggressive easing cycle, you’ll see a rush into rate-sensitive stocks — tech, housing, utilities. Bond yields will drop. The dollar will likely weaken.
On the flip side, if Powell hints at caution — or says inflation progress has stalled — expect a sharp reversal.
Stocks will sell off, yields pop, and the dollar rally. Especially if Thursday’s data comes in stronger than expected.
Second, the retail earnings are going to offer trade setups galore.
If Walmart shows strength and raises guidance, it could ignite a rotation back into consumer staples. If Target or Home Depot disappoint and blame tariffs or weak demand, it could pressure discretionary stocks, and even spill over into industrials.
This week is about reading the tea leaves ahead of a massive macro moment.
My advice?
Stay nimble.
Don’t overcommit before Thursday’s data or Friday’s speech.
Watch the bond market closely — it’s usually first to sniff out the Fed’s next move.
And keep some dry powder ready. There will be trades here. You just have to let the setup come to you.
As always, I’m not here to sell you a dream. I’ve traded through enough Fed weeks to know that the real money comes not from guessing but from reacting with discipline when others are caught offside.
Let the market show its hand first.
Then strike.
Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. Starting Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET, Danny Phee and I are kicking off a four-day series called AI Mania, a no-fluff walkthrough of the exact gameplan traders need right now.
We’ll cover where the real AI setups are, how to trade them with precision, and what to avoid so you don’t get caught chasing the hype.
*Past performance does not indicate future results
