Good morning, tradersâŚ
Jeff here.
Thereâs a moment in every traderâs career when the setups theyâve traded for years suddenly stop working.
At first, you think itâs just a rough patch, a string of bad trades. Maybe the marketâs just being âweirdâ this weekâŚ
But then it keeps happening.
The dips you buy donât bounce. The green opens you chase roll over. Suddenly, what used to be your sharpest edge is now your biggest âAchillesâ heel.â
And before you even realize it, the market has changed â and youâre caught flat-footed playing the wrong game.
Thatâs where we are right now.
Two major shifts are happening in the market right now. And if you donât adjust to these changes, youâre going to get left behind.
So, let me show you what those changes are (and how to adapt) in todayâs Tuesday Market OutlookâŚ
Shift #1: Stop Buying the Dip, Start Selling Strength
For years, traders were conditioned to buy the dip like Pavlovâs dog was conditioned to expect food.
Markets opened weak? Easy, you bought. And 90% of the time, you were rewarded with a bounce. It became so predictable that traders barely thought about it.
But thatâs not happening anymore.
Weâve had a regime change â and these shifts donât come with an announcement. They show up quietly. They creep in.
And if youâre not paying attention, youâll keep making the same mistake over and over until your account bleeds out.
Hereâs whatâs happening right now:
- Green opens are getting sold into. Strength is being met with selling pressure.
- Red opens are getting worse. Instead of bouncing, they continue to sink.
The highest-probability trade in the morning is selling rips. Thatâs the adjustment you need to make.
In a bull market, dip buying works because the overall trend is strong. Even if you mistime an entry, the market eventually bails you out.
But in a bearish market â or a choppy, trendless one â buying dips will chop your account up faster than a sushi knife through a piece of tiramisu.
And yet, I still see traders refusing to adjust. They keep doing what worked in 2020, 2021, or even 2023.
They think the market will eventually go back to ânormal.â But what if this is the ânew normal?â
The traders who make money donât fight the tape. They recognize when the rules of engagement have changed, and they adjust.
If you want to survive in this market, you have to rewire your instincts.
Shift #2: Cryptoâs Last Lever Has Been Pulled
Now, letâs talk about cryptoâŚ
I was expecting a much bigger move in Bitcoin and crypto stocks after Trump announced the strategic cryptocurrency reserve.
It was supposed to be the next big catalyst â the kind of thing that drives a sustained move higher.
But it didnât happen.
And the way I see it, that was the last major bullet for crypto in the short term. The levers have been pulled. Thereâs no new fundamental driver to push prices higher right now.
And thatâs a problem.
When something should go up but doesnât, that tells you everything you need to know.
The crypto market is driven by narrative, hype, and momentum. And the biggest tailwind for BTC â big Wall Street money pouring in â just didnât move the needle the way many traders expected.
Does that mean crypto is dead? No. Could we still see another technical breakout? Yes.
But until we see fresh buying pressure, crypto could go sideways for a while. The momentum is drying up.
What This Means for Your Trading
There are two big takeaways here:
- The âbuy-the-dipâ strategy isnât working. If you keep doing it, youâre going to get crushed. Start selling strength instead.
- Cryptoâs last major catalyst didnât deliver. If youâre still chasing, you need to rethink that. Thereâs no urgency to be long right now.
This is what separates losing traders from winning traders:
- Losing traders keep doing what used to work, hoping the market will eventually reward them.
- Winning traders spot shifts in market behavior and adapt accordingly.
The market doesnât care about your old playbook. It doesnât care about your past wins. And it certainly doesnât care about your money.
It only cares about what works today.
If you recognize these shifts and make the right adjustments, youâll survive. Youâll crush it. Youâll be ahead of the herd while everyone else gets chopped up.
But if you donât, youâll be sitting there in a few months, wondering why your account value is so much lowerâŚ
The game has changed, thatâs undeniable. The question is: Are you adapting?
My go-to strategy right now is Burn Notice trades. Theyâre quick, overnight options plays that wonât overexpose you to broader market risk.
Join my buddy Jordan Phee for a LIVE BURN NOTICE WORKSHOP ⌠TODAY, March 4 at 10:00 a.m. EST
Click here to reserve your seat.
Happy trading,
Jeff Zananiri
*Past performance does not indicate future results