Good morning, traders,
Love him or hate him, one thing’s for sure: Donald Trump isn’t shy about shaking things up.
And right now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell might want to sleep with one eye open.
Trump’s been making noise about replacing Powell at the Fed, even though Powell’s term isn’t set to end until next May.
The president has even called publicly for Powell to resign and floated the idea of installing a “shadow” Fed chair who’s more willing to cut rates.
Trump wants someone who will juice the economy and the markets ahead of November, even if it means pouring gasoline on inflation.
And the market is already sniffing this out.
The dollar’s getting clobbered and just hit a three-year low.
Traders are positioning for a Fed that cuts sooner and deeper than what Powell has been willing to do.
That’s a big deal.
Powell’s been the guy holding the line, keeping rates elevated to stop inflation from reigniting.
But if he’s forced out or sidelined? All bets are off.
And that doesn’t even consider what else is happening in the larger economy this week.
Here’s a preview of all the fireworks — and how not to get blown up by them.
Powell and More Galore
Powell is scheduled to speak this morning, and everyone’s going to be hanging on every word.
If he hints at fighting back politically, doubling down on inflation, or even showing signs of cracking under the pressure, the market’s going to move.
And that’s just the beginning of what could be a wild week.
Even with the July 4 holiday on Friday, we’ve got a full slate of heavyweight economic data coming in hot:
Today: Manufacturing PMI
This report measures how the manufacturing sector is doing.
Anything above 50 means expansion, below 50 means contraction.
Why does it matter?
Because manufacturing is a key early-warning system for the economy.
If factories slow down, it’s usually a sign businesses are pulling back — less demand, less growth, less hiring.
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
This one gives a sneak peek at the labor market before the official government jobs number hits.
It tracks private sector hiring, or how many people are getting paychecks from real-world employers.
If ADP comes in hot, it can mean wage inflation is still a threat. If it’s soft, it might reinforce the rate-cut argument.
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Every Thursday, we get the number of people filing for unemployment.
It’s a weekly gauge, and while it’s more of a short-term read, it’s powerful.
Rising claims can signal a weakening labor market.
Falling claims mean the job market is still too tight for the Fed to ease up.
Thursday: Unemployment Rate
This one’s the biggie. It’s the official snapshot of how many Americans are out of work.
The Fed watches this like a hawk.
If the unemployment rate ticks higher, that’s fuel for the “cut-rates-now” crowd.
If it stays low, it’s a sign the economy is still running hot.
Thursday: ISM Services Index
Most of the U.S. economy is based on services, not manufacturing.
This report covers that side of the economy: retail, health care, finance, real estate, and more.
Just like the manufacturing PMI, 50 is the magic number.
If services are slowing down, the Fed may have cover to lower rates. If they’re expanding, rate cuts get pushed further out.
All That and More
So you’ve got Trump pushing for cuts, Powell speaking under pressure, and several different data points that could all swing market expectations.
The market isn’t going to sit still.
Neither should you.
If you’re trading options, this is the kind of week you prepare for.
It’s not just about watching the data, it’s about understanding what matters, why it matters, and how it could shift sentiment fast.
You don’t need to predict every data point. You just need to recognize the setups when they come and know how to trade them with a plan.
I’ll be watching it all, and if you’re serious about using options to capitalize on this kind of volatility, now’s the time to focus.
Because in this kind of environment, hesitation costs money and opportunity doesn’t knock twice.
Stay sharp,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. Wednesday at noon ET, Aaron Hunziker will talk about the fastest-growing opportunities in the market right now:
These contracts move like lightning and hit big. Learn to trade them the right way.
👉 [Save your seat now — before space fills up.]
