If you’ve ever watched someone sprint a marathon pace, they start strong, their arms pumping as the crowd cheers. They look unstoppable for about 20 minutes, and then you see it: the stumble, the shortness of breath, the legs starting to go.
That’s exactly what the market looks like right now.
Everyone’s acting like this thing can’t lose.
Every dip is a buying opportunity. Every earnings miss is “already priced in.”
People who weren’t even checking their portfolios six months ago are now trading with the confidence of a hedge fund manager.
That’s not strength. It’s exhaustion.
When markets move too far, too fast, they hit a point where the risk/reward flips, and most people don’t even realize it until their account gets punched in the face.
Let me be clear: I’m not calling a top. I’m not shorting everything in sight.
But I’ve been around long enough to know what this kind of behavior leads to.
And it ain’t smooth sailing.
We’ve got charts stretched beyond reason, sentiment flipping euphoric, and breath narrowing in a way that says, “This party’s running out of steam.”
But the average retail trader isn’t paying attention to any of that. They’re busy chasing the latest AI stock, hoping this time they don’t buy the top.
This is where traders either get humbled or get paid. It all depends on how you approach it.
This is what I’m doing to stay ahead of the inevitable.
Don’t Burn the Roast
I don’t trade based on what I hope will happen.
I trade based on setups I’ve seen work over and over again, especially in markets like this, where emotion takes over and price moves get overcooked.
And right now, we’re seeing some of the cleanest “mean reversion” setups we’ve had in months.
It’s the kind of stuff that doesn’t show up in calm, boring markets.
These setups only appear when traders get greedy, when everything feels too easy, and when people forget that trees don’t grow to the sky.
You don’t need to predict the exact top. You just need to be early to the shift — and positioned for it.
That’s what options let us do better than any other strategy on the street.
When the market’s tired, you don’t need to short everything in sight; you just need to pick your spots and let the rubber band snap back.
That’s how I’ve played stretched markets for 20+ years. I did it in the dot-com craze. I did it during the housing bubble. I did it during the COVID melt-up and crash.
And I’m doing it again now.
Cash in a Slingshot
Most people will keep pressing the gas until they go straight off the cliff.
You don’t have to be one of them.
I’m looking at three names right now that are so extended, they’re practically begging to come back to earth.
If they go another 5% to 10% higher from here, great — my setups just get cleaner.
But once they snap, that’s where the money gets made.
If you’re trading without a plan right now, you’re at a profound disadvantage.
If you’re chasing every green candle, you’re playing a dangerous game.
The edge exists, but only if you know how to use it.
Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri
Want to hone your edge in this market? Join Aaron Hunziker today at 10 a.m. ET in the APEXWar Room, where he’ll break down the trades he’s watching, what’s moving right now, and how to position smartly in this environment.
If you want to stay sharp and a step ahead of the crowd, be there.
*Past performance does not indicate future results
