One of the most recognizable stocks in the market just pledged a share for every kid in America.
And it’s not the only catalyst affecting the price this week…
My #1 stock to watch.
The best way to spot volatile stocks before they start moving: pay attention to the financial calendar.
Every week, a host of catalysts hit the market.
- Fed decisions.
- Earnings.
- Financial data.
There’s always a reason for tickers to move.
All we have to do is identify the most consequential catalyst and wait for the market’s reaction.
1 Stock – 3 Catalysts
My #1 watch this week is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX).
There are three catalysts to be aware of…
The most recent news: one share for every child in America.
On Monday, October 19, Musk said he’d give one of his SpaceX shares to every “kid” in America next year.
With just over 72 million people under 18 in the U.S., that’s a little over $10.5 billion at Friday’s $146.03 per share close.
For SPCX, this is mainly a sentiment and headline catalyst. It could bring millions of new retail holders, but the supply impact is small, since it fits his June 2027 lockup expiration. Plus, we’re still a few months out.
The news isn’t as consequential, but it’s worth noting considering Musk’s recent affinity for attention-grabbing catalysts (like his booster-fitted Tesla roadster demonstration).
The second catalyst is an earnings announcement this afternoon, after the market closes.
This is the second public earnings announcement in company history. The earlier announcement was after the market closed on August 4.
Here were the numbers:
- Revenue: $7.81 billion (up 91.9% year-over-year)
- Estimate: ~$6.72 billion to $6.82 billion (beat estimates by roughly $994.8 million to $1.09 billion)
- Earnings per share (EPS): -$0.09
- Estimate: -$0.26 loss per share (beat expectations by $0.17 per share)
In response to the data, SPCX gapped lower, hit support at the all-time lows, and then rebounded higher.
The third catalyst is a share lock-up expiration on Saturday, October 24. An additional 328.4 million shares will be eligible for sale.
That’s a potential dilution event which could push prices lower.
More supply means every share is worth less.
My Trade Plan
Here’s the trade alert I sent at 10:19 A.M. ET on October 19:
“BUY SPCX 10/30/26 145 PUTS… 5 to 10X potentially, but also risk of 100% loss!!!! Trade carefully.”
I’m expecting SPCX to trade lower after the earnings and the lock-up expiration.
Yes, buying these contracts before the announcement is a bit of a gamble. But we already knew that I like to gamble.
Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Especially during earnings lotto trades.
If you’re squeamish about gambling on this move… wait for the earnings to drop and then play the reaction.
You might miss some of the move, but you’ll have a better idea of the sentiment. And a more informed trade is a safer trade.
Stay Street Smart,
Jeff Zananiri
