Good morning, traders,
If you’re feeling a little whiplash from the headlines last week, you’re not alone.
On Wednesday, we got a clean 3% print on Q2 GDP growth — a strong surprise considering Q1 was a dud.
Markets liked it. The Fed liked it enough to keep rates unchanged.
Everyone exhaled for a moment, thinking: “OK, maybe the soft landing is back on the table.”
Then Friday happened.
The July jobs report dropped like a hammer.
Just 73,000 jobs added. That’s not a slowdown — that’s a stall.
But the real gut punch? May and June’s numbers were revised down by a combined 258,000.
That’s the kind of revision you typically only see when something’s breaking under the hood.
And then, as if we weren’t already trying to digest enough, Trump tossed another grenade into the mix, slapping new reciprocal tariffs on a bunch of countries, ranging from 10% to 41%.
The market shrugged it off short-term, but don’t think for a second that move won’t ripple through trade data and corporate earnings as we head into Q4.
So what does all this mean?
It means we need to stay nimble as the boulders keep raining down, and this is how.
Rate-Cutt Roller Coaster
Traders read the weak jobs report and immediately started pricing in a higher chance of rate cuts as early as September, when the FOMC meets again.
Just a week ago, the bet was 50/50 on one cut by year-end. Now, we’re looking at nearly two cuts being priced in before the holidays.
Why the shift? Because bad job numbers don’t just mean fewer people getting hired — they mean consumers start pulling back.
And when consumers pull back, earnings get hit. The Fed knows that. And they’ll move faster than people think if job losses keep stacking up.
The 10-year yield dropped hard on Friday. Bond traders are making their move. The equity market? Still floating on tech earnings and soft landing dreams — for now.
But if August data follows the same trend, we could see volatility roar back hard and fast.
Being Prepared Pays Off
Look, it’s easy to get lulled into sleep when markets grind higher and the headlines are mixed.
But traders who wait for the “all clear” are the ones who miss the move — or worse, get hit from both sides.
This is the window where smart options traders can carve out real gains.
We’re entering a potential rate shift window plus a volatility expansion window plus an earnings digestion window plus now … a trade war echo chamber starting to form.
That’s a cocktail built for short-term swing trades, earnings volatility plays, and strategic hedging.
Here’s what I’m watching this week:
- Bond yields and the dollar. If yields keep dropping, it signals real fear about growth. And if the dollar starts to weaken with it, that could open up commodity plays — gold especially.
- Tech follow-through. Big names already reported. Now the question is whether buyers have any gas left, or if we start to see sector rotation.
- Tariff-sensitive names. Industrials, semiconductors, retailers with exposure to Asia and Europe. Trump’s order could trigger re-pricing in global names — especially those that already have weak margins.
- A spike in the VIX. That’s a sure sign of flux, and flux means trading potential.
Sands Are Shifting
Markets aren’t sitting still. Under the surface, we’re seeing a shift.
The GDP number gave everyone a high-five, but the jobs report pulled the rug right back.
And tariffs? That’s a slow burn that’ll creep into forward guidance.
This is the time to get tactical.
Keep your position sizes manageable, and look for defined-risk trades that let you benefit whether the market breaks higher or rolls over.
Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. Join Danny Phee tonight at 8 p.m. ET for APEX Live, where he’ll walk you through the setups we’re watching, how the market’s reacting, and where the real opportunities are right now.
📅 Today | ⏰ 8 p.m. | APEX Live
*Past performance does not indicate future results
