For months, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been toeing the line on inflation like it’s a highwire act at the circus.
But no matter how much that rope wobbles, the U.S. Central Bank hasn’t budged on lowering rates.
Yet.
And that’s despite mountains of static flowing from the Trump administration and others, howling, threatening, and wheezing for cuts.
Meanwhile, in just one day’s time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — the Fed’s policy arm — is set to make its much-anticipated rate announcement.
The entire economy is faced with the big question: Will the Fed finally cut rates, or will it keep on toeing the line until sticky inflation numbers start subsiding?
I have a theory or two.
Here’s what I’m thinking — and how you can play this market-moving week.
Opportunity Awaits
This week’s got all the ingredients for a market shake-up: potential Fed drama, retail data, and Middle East tension.
A nice little trifecta of potential volatility.
The FOMC is making its rate announcement on Wednesday and yes, the market thinks they’re standing pat. Again.
But what matters more than the rate itself is the tone.
Powell’s press conference could light a fire (or toss a bucket of water) on traders looking for a September cut.
Wall Street wants those cuts. Bad.
But inflation’s been sticky, and the Fed’s not in the business of giving out early Christmas presents.
So if Powell so much as hints at “higher for longer,” expect a reaction.
Now, if you’re a trader, this is a setup: big macro event, clear expectations, and a tightly coiled market.
You’ve got opportunity. The key is to think beyond what the Fed says and prepare for how the market digests it.
That’s where the money is made.
Economic Omens
And just when you thought you had enough to think about, today hits you with retail sales.
These numbers matter. A lot.
If the consumer’s still strong, it complicates the Fed’s job.
If retail slips, we might hear talk of cracks forming in the economy’s armor.
Either way, this isn’t data you ignore.
I’ve seen a lot of traders miss moves because they think economic data is for economists.
Let me make it real simple: good sales = strong economy = potentially hawkish Fed. Weak sales = recession fears = potential rate cuts.
That has ripple effects across everything from financials to tech to oil.
Speaking of oil…
Friday, the market went haywire after Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear targets. Oil spiked fast.
But now we’re seeing it back off a bit.
Because, although Iran clapped back, it doesn’t appear to be escalating tensions as long as the U.S. stays out of the fight.
It’s All in the Gut
However, that little relief rally in oil tells you all you need to know about where sentiment is.
People are jumpy. And in that kind of environment, sharp moves happen. Fast.
So how do you trade this?
Focus on names that move well around news.
Think high-beta stocks, clean chart setups, liquid options chains.
Keep your watchlist tight.
This is not the time to chase 50 different tickers.
Get your levels set before the news hits.
The move usually comes in the reaction, not the initial number.
And if you’re using options, be smart about it.
IV will likely pop ahead of Wednesday, so don’t overpay. Consider spreads or wait for the post-announcement washout to pick your spot.
And don’t sleep on oil stocks. They’ve cooled off a bit since Friday’s spike, but that story isn’t dead.
Middle East tensions don’t just vanish. If things flare up again, energy could rip higher, and fast.
Bottom line: You’ve got catalysts, you’ve got volatility, and you’ve got a chance to catch real moves if you stay sharp.
This is the kind of week that separates the talkers from the traders.
Let’s get to work,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. On Thursday, June 19, at 8 p.m. ET, I’m pulling back the curtain on one of the fastest-growing opportunities in the market right now:
These contracts move fast. They hit big. And when you know how to trade them the right way — they can flip a quiet Thursday into a winning day.
👉 [Save your seat now — before it fills up.]
