Jerome Powell isn’t driving the market anymore.
And it’s like I said back in May, the era of near-zero interest rates is over, along with any illusion that we’re back in the economic climate of the 2010s.
Wednesday’s big Fed press conference made that clear.
There was no major reaction to the Fed’s statement to keep rates the same, and no fireworks in the S&P.
Bond yields wiggled a bit, but that’s it.
Other things are moving the market right now, and they’re out of the Fed’s control.
They have a lot to do with what’s happening in the Middle East. And a lot to do with the continued tussling over tariffs.
Truth is, the biggest market movers right now can be found in the headlines and not in central bank expectations.
So here’s what to watch instead and how to play it.
They Did What?!
The central bank kept rates parked between 4.25% and 4.5%, right where they’ve been since December.
But they did cut the GDP forecast. They also raised the inflation outlook to 3%.
And then they sat on their hands.
Again.
You don’t have to be an economist to spot the contradiction here.
If growth is slowing, why raise the inflation target?
The most recent CPI and PPI prints don’t show inflation heating up. If anything, we’re drifting lower.
But for some reason, the Fed says, “Nope, it’s still sticky. We’re sticking with our 3% guess.”
What gives?
They’re stuck. Between a rock and political pressure.
Powell’s trying to play this “steady hand” act, but it’s getting harder to take seriously.
If the data says inflation isn’t roaring and growth is slipping, then a flexible, responsive central bank would pivot. Start easing.
And if inflation does come back? Fine, hike later.
Instead, we get paralysis.
Personally, I think it’s political. No rate cuts before November.
And that means Powell is more interested in not rocking the boat than actually helping the economy.
The “just in case” inflation excuse feels more like cover than strategy.
But Wait, There’s More…
Geopolitical tension, oil prices, tariffs, and global demand are what’s moving the needle.
Not the FOMC.
We’ve got uncertainty out of Iran. Oil flirting with breakout levels again. And a tug-of-war over tariffs and trade policy.
Those are the stories to watch if you want to know where markets are headed.
That means you have to be selective. You have to know what companies are doing now, not what Powell might say three months from now.
Strong fundamentals matter again. Earnings, balance sheets, and demand trends are back on the board.
It also means that volatility can come from weird angles — headlines, political moves, commodity shocks.
So you better be ready to adapt.
Sitting around waiting for the Fed to give you a clear signal is a recipe for getting left behind.
If you’re still trading like the Fed’s in control, you’re missing the plot.
There are plenty of ways to capitalize when the market stops caring about Powell and starts paying attention to the bigger picture.
Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri
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