Depending on where you live, fall is in the air right now. 

And as temperatures drop — even in Miami — you can sense a shift in the market. 

It’s not necessarily fear or excitement…but something in between, where the setups start to get quieter, volatility takes a breath, and the broader tape feels oddly balanced.

It isn’t going to last, though. 

We’re heading into a stretch where it’s about to get pretty noisy:

• This Thursday gives us the next inflation print in a market where economic data has been scarce.
• Thanksgiving week brings that low-volume chop nobody enjoys.
• And then the final FOMC rate decision of 2025 comes in the second week of December, followed quickly by holiday vacations and New Year’s hangovers.

By the time we’re into December, the market may look completely different from what you’re seeing today. 

So, this week could be your last clean setup window before the chaos kicks off.

Let’s talk strategy. 

Polish Those Weapons

Back in my Wall Street days, one of the best traders I ever worked with had a saying: “Don’t trade harder. Trade cleaner.” 

What he meant was simple: Recognize when the market’s giving you a decent signal, and act on it while everyone else is waiting for some perfect setup that never materializes.

This week is a good example of that.

The market doesn’t care that Thanksgiving is coming up or that everyone’s already thinking about holiday shopping. 

What it does care about is positioning. That gives you a narrow lane to get in before new data drops start rattling the cage again.

Maybe by the time you see this, the government shutdown will have ended. 

Rate-Cut Roulette

If you’ve been watching the tape closely, you’ve probably seen that implied volatility has been mostly moderate. 

That’s the market signaling some caution but no immediate danger, a setup that can mean some of the cleanest credit spreads and neutral trades you’ll get all month. 

Just don’t confuse cautious calm with safety.

This week’s CPI report is a potential minefield that could flip the market from a low-volatility glide to panic mode in a matter of hours. 

Then there’s the final Fed decision in December. 

Jerome Powell’s pressers have been whipsaw factories lately, and funds are going to start repositioning heavily after the CPI number to front-run that last rate event.

So, I’ll say it again: This week is the last window to get clean trades on before the market turns into a chess match among institutions, algos, and retail FOMO.

If you’re running spreads, make sure you’re getting paid for the risk. 

If you’re long directional trades, pick your spots carefully. Don’t just throw darts because the VIX is relatively sleepy. 

A sleepy VIX doesn’t mean sleepy markets; it means a sneaky setup.

Be Ready to Move 

And if you’re sitting in cash, that’s fine too, but don’t sit still because you’re scared. Sit still because you’ve already taken your shot and you’re managing the trade.

This business rewards preparation, not perfection. 

The ones who survive the November-December period are the ones who positioned well before the fireworks started.

I’ve seen guys get chopped up over Thanksgiving week more times than I can count, all because they tried to force trades in a dead tape, or worse, they got blindsided by inflation because they weren’t watching the positioning underneath the surface.

So use this window to decide how much exposure you want before CPI data hits and holiday volume disappears. 

Because once the noise starts…you’re already too late.

Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri