Good morning, tradersâŚ
Jeff here.
Thereâs an itch that traders feel â this need to always be in the game, always making a move.
But as weird as this might sound, some of the best trades youâll ever make are the ones you donât take.
Thatâs exactly where I stand right now.
Markets are ultra-volatile, and last weekâs big tech earnings were a perfect example of why patience pays off.
Many traders rushed in, buying call options ahead of earnings, thinking they were about to hit the jackpot. After all, these companies were expected to beat expectations â and they did!
But look at what happened next: the stocks tanked. AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT â all red.
In hindsight, itâs obvious. The outcome of these events wasnât just about whether they âbeatâ the top and bottom lines. It was about guidance, CapEx, and market sentiment.
Traders who placed their bets before earnings were essentially gambling. They didnât wait for the full story. And a lot of them got destroyed.
Thatâs why I prefer to wait until after a major event plays out before making my move.
Some traders donât have the patience for this. They want action. They want to feel like theyâre doing something.
But every day isnât a great trading day. And the traders who donât respect that end up taking losses they couldâve easily avoided.
With that in mind, let me show you why now is a time for caution, conservatism, and patienceâŚ
Avoid âSports Bettingâ on the Stock Market
Traders love to be right. Itâs a natural instinct â this internal need to make a bold call and have it pay off big.
But the best traders in the world donât care about being right all the time.
They prioritize making money over being right. It doesnât matter if you ânailed the callâ on an event â if you didnât make money, it was a waste of time.
On the flip side, if you placed a predictive trade and were wrong â now youâre stuck with a loss simply because you wanted to make a brilliant prediction.
This is why I donât make binary bets before major catalysts like earnings reports, Fed meetings, investor conferences, or product launches.
The outcome is unknown. And when the outcome is unknown, the trade is a gamble.
So, what do I do instead? I wait.
Once the catalyst happens and the initial reaction plays out, thatâs when I look for my trade.
This is why:
- The major move has already happened. Now I can see whatâs real and whatâs just noise.
- Knee-jerk reactions often reverse. I wait for confirmation before making a move.
- Implied volatility (IV) drops after the event, making options cheaper.
Instead of betting before the catalyst and hoping for the best, I wait after and trade with the trend. Thatâs a strategy that actually works.
3 Mistakes That Lead to Bad Predictive Trades
If making predictive trades is so risky, why do so many traders still do it?
It usually boils down to one of these three mistakesâŚ
1. Constantly Chasing Action
Some traders think they have to trade every day. Maybe they get bored. Maybe they feel like theyâre missing out. Maybe theyâre just impatient.
Whatever the reason, it leads to bad trades.
The best traders donât make trades just to trade. They wait for the right setups. They pick their spots carefully.
If you feel the urge to trade for the sake of trading â stop. Thatâs not trading. Thatâs chasing.
2. Greedy Positioning
Hereâs a fact: if you buy options before a major catalyst and youâre right about the direction, youâll make more money than if you wait until after the move happens.
Thatâs true. But that doesnât mean itâs a good strategy.
The problem? The odds arenât in your favor. The market could move the opposite way. Or the expected move could already be priced in, leading to a muted reaction. Or implied volatility could crush your contracts even if youâre âright.â
Being right doesnât mean youâll profit. And thatâs why greed leads to bad trades.
3. Copying Other Tradersâ Plays
During major catalysts, social media explodes with traders sharing their bets. Everyone has an opinion, and theyâre all trying to convince others that their trade is the best one.
But blindly copying trades is a terrible idea.
You donât know their full strategy. You donât know their risk tolerance. And if too many people pile into the same trade, it becomes overcrowdedâsetting up the perfect conditions for a rug pull.
Trust your own research. If you donât understand a trade inside and out, donât take it.
Some traders made a killing on last weekâs big tech earnings. But a lot of traders got crushed because they didnât wait for the full picture before making their move.
This is the difference between smart trading and gambling.
If you donât know how the market will react to an event, why are you betting on it?
Let the market show its hand first. Then trade the reaction.
Trade smart,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. One strategy is still working, even in this crazy marketâŚ
If youâre ready to capitalize on the gains GAMMA has been delivering me every week â 145%, 235%, 630%, and even 900% â all in 24 hours or less* â then now is the timeâŚ
TODAY, February 10 at 9:00 a.m. EST, the great Danny Phee is hosting a SPECIAL LIVE WORKSHOP to walk you through everything you need to know about my GAMMA Code system.
Let AI help you find triple-digit trades â Donât miss your chance to join.
*Past performance does not indicate future results