This week feels like a trap waiting to spring.

On the surface, everything looks great. 

The S&P’s creeping up. 

Big Banks are getting louder, upgrading stocks like it’s some kind of encore after last week’s rally. 

Pundits are smiling on the news again. 

And now the U.S. and China are “back at the table” talking trade, tech, and tariffs. 

The bulls are salivating, but smart traders know better.

This market is being gassed up with hot air, and the fuel is coming straight from Wall Street’s marketing department. 

Don’t forget, when banks are bullish, it’s not because they suddenly found religion. 

It’s because they make more money when clients are buying stocks. 

They don’t care if it’s overpriced. They care if the phones are ringing.

And this week, they’ve got the perfect setup to keep the music playing.

Now here’s how to avoid that trap…

What Really Matters

This morning, CPI drops. 

This is the big one.

It’s going to show us whether inflation is finally cooling off for real, or if the Fed’s still got work to do.

Strip out the noise, and core CPI is what Jerome Powell watches most. 

If it stays sticky or comes in hot? The rate cut dream gets kicked further down the road. 

But if it surprises lower? 

Expect a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. 

Doesn’t mean it’ll stick, but the bots won’t wait for confirmation.

Then Thursday, we get PPI and jobless claims. 

That’s the market’s gut check.

PPI shows what producers are paying, costs that often trickle down to CPI later. 

If that’s heating up, it’s a red flag for the Fed. 

Pair that with jobless claims that still look too healthy, and you’ve got a recipe for another hawkish narrative.

This is what makes the current rally so sketchy. 

Traders are pricing in perfection. They’re acting like inflation is dead, rate cuts are coming, and the Fed’s going to stick a landing smoother than butter on a Miami sidewalk in July.

Meanwhile, the people writing that story are the same ones who needed bailouts in 2008.

China’s Back, And?

Yes, China and the U.S. are having “high-level” talks again. 

Sounds impressive, right?

Well, those headlines have been recycled more times than the plastic forks in your office kitchen.

It’s the same game: rumors of cooperation right when markets need a little morale boost. 

There’s no deal. There’s no timeline. There’s no breakthrough. 

Just talk.

And Wall Street’s using that as an excuse to slap Buy ratings on everything with a ticker.

If you’re wondering whether this rally’s real, ask yourself this: What actually changed?

Rates? Nope.

Earnings? Spotty.

Inflation? Still sticky.

Fed? Still cautious.

The only thing that changed is sentiment, and that’s always the first thing to turn.

Be Ready, But Don’t Chase

I’m not saying the market can’t go higher this week. 

With CPI, PPI, and jobless claims packed into 48 hours, we could see fireworks. 

But I am saying don’t get caught leaning the wrong way.

This is where you make money by planning your trades before the data drops, not reacting after.

Let retail chase headlines and bank upgrades. Let Wall Street pump up stocks so they can sell into strength.

You? Watch the data. Wait for the setups. 

Then strike when the chart agrees.

The ones who survive weeks like this aren’t the most bullish — they’re the ones who stay sharp while everyone else gets soft.

Stay focused. Trade smart. 

And remember: Wall Street always has an angle. Make sure you have yours too.

P.S. Want to spot the next big move before it hits the headlines?

Join Aaron Hunziker Thursday at 2 p.m. ET for a breakdown of the real signal smart traders are watching right now.

He’ll walk you through the structural trigger that’s popped up ahead of major market moves before — and it’s flashing again.

👉 [Save your spot here.]

*Past performance does not indicate future results.