Good morning, traders. 

Today, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve. 

The FOMC is meeting, and while we don’t expect fireworks, the market is still holding its breath. 

Not because anyone’s forecasting a rate hike — but because of how Fed Chair Jerome Powell might sound when the mics turn on.

And this isn’t happening in a vacuum.

There’s plenty bubbling beneath the surface: global tariffs that are going nowhere fast, vague treaty talk from Washington and Beijing, and a stock market that just staged one of the most head-scratching rallies we’ve seen in decades. 

It’s like all the pieces are moving, but nothing is clicking into place.

Let’s unpack it.

V-Shaped Rip — or Bear Market Blip?

Last week, the S&P 500 closed higher for nine straight sessions — a streak we haven’t seen in over 20 years. 

That kind of relentless up-move feels more like a short squeeze or algo-driven frenzy than true confidence. 

Historically, bull markets don’t move like that. 

That’s not optimism.

It’s momentum, and it can be fragile.

The setup felt like a classic V-shaped bounce: sharp drop, followed by an equally sharp recovery. 

That’s not normal behavior in a healthy market. And that’s why I’m leaning toward this being a bear market rally.

There’s just not enough behind the curtain to justify these moves. 

You need fundamental conviction to break out of a bear — and this doesn’t have it.

All Bark, No Bite

The other piece no one’s talking about enough is tariffs.

There’s been a lot of noise from Washington and Beijing — talking up the idea of deals and economic harmony. 

But the actions? 

All over the place. 

U.S.-China negotiations have no clear structure, and we’re still “far apart” on key issues with countries we’re supposed to be close with.

If that’s the case, how far are we, really, from the Chinese?

Here’s my take: I don’t think Trump is looking for zero tariffs with anyone. 

And the market, slowly but surely, is beginning to price that in.

That makes Powell’s job harder. 

Trade uncertainty is a weight on the economy, but Powell’s already being pushed around publicly by the White House. 

In fact, I’d argue Trump’s jabs have made Powell less likely to flinch now. Powell strikes me as the kind of guy who digs in his heels when cornered.

Sitting Tight in No Man’s Land

Right now, we’ve bounced right back to the midpoint on the major indexes. 

We’re not oversold anymore, but we’re not overbought either. 

It’s neutral ground. 

Combine that with the uncertainty around interest rates and trade deals, and the picture gets murky real fast.

That’s why I’ve pulled back. 

I’m trading the smallest size I’ve used in the past three months. Not because I’m scared — but because the risk/reward just isn’t great here. 

It’s a coin flip in both directions.

The next big move is going to come after we get more clarity — whether from Powell’s statement today or some kind of real breakthrough (or breakdown) in trade talks. 

Until then, preserving capital is the name of the game.

Join the Club

If you’re feeling confused, you’re not alone. 

The market’s giving off mixed signals — screaming rally while whispering caution. 

The FOMC could shift the tone today, but unless Powell stuns everyone with a major pivot (and I doubt he will), expect more chop.

This is where discipline matters.

This isn’t the time to go all-in on hunches or chase headlines. 

Stay patient. 

Let the noise shake out. 

When the market shows its hand, then we can get aggressive.

Until then, trade small. Stay sharp. 

And don’t let boredom lure you into a dumb trade.

Keep watching,
— Jeff Zananiri

Want to make sense of this mess of a market? 

Join me live today at 2 p.m. ET. I’ll break it all down — no fluff, no jargon.

Most traders are guessing right now. I’m not.
If you want to be one of the few playing it smart while the rest chase noise, this is your chance.

👉 Save your seat here. See you this afternoon.

*Past performance does not indicate future results.