Good morning, traders. 

For the past few weeks, tariff talk was the dog chasing its tail. 

Headlines about trade wars, retaliatory tariffs, and back-channel negotiations kept investors nervous and guessing. 

But with tensions cooling for now, it’s time to shift focus to what really moves markets: data.

And we’ve got a pile of it landing this week. 

Today’s set list is no joke — jobless claims, retail sales, PPI, industrial production, and Jerome Powell speaking. Then on Friday, we’ll get the import price index.

This isn’t noise. These are real signals. 

And if you trade options, you’d better be watching how these releases stack up.

What the Market Is Watching

Each of these data points pulls a different lever on market expectations, and how they land will either fuel the fire under stocks or douse the rally.

Let’s break them down:

• Jobless Claims: The market’s still laser-focused on labor. A spike here could reignite recession fears. A drop might confirm the “soft landing” narrative that’s been priced in for weeks. Either way, it’s a short-term volatility trigger.
  
• Retail Sales: This is your real-time check on consumer health. Strong sales could be inflationary — bad for bonds, bad for rate cuts. If the numbers are weak, traders will start pricing in more Fed easing.
  
• Producer Price Index (PPI): While PPI doesn’t get as much love as CPI, it’s still a leading inflation indicator. Options traders should watch the reaction in yields and sectors like materials and industrials. A hotter-than-expected number could crush duration-sensitive trades.
  
• Industrial Production: It’s not the most glamorous data point, but it feeds directly into GDP expectations. If this surprises to the upside, cyclical names (think energy, industrials, transports) could get a lift.
  
• Powell Speaks: And then there’s Jerome. The Fed chair doesn’t speak off-the-cuff. Traders will parse his tone to see if June or July is still on the table for a rate cut, or if recent strength in inflation is pushing out that timeline.
  
• Import Price Index (Friday): This gives a fresh look at inflation pressures from abroad. It doesn’t usually rock the tape, but in a market hypersensitive to anything inflation-related, don’t write it off.

Tighten It Up

We’re in a data-driven stretch now, and that’s when traders with discipline get paid. 

Tariffs were noise. 

These data releases are signals.

If you’re feeling overwhelmed, you’re probably trying to do too much. 

Narrow your focus. Pick a sector. Pick a catalyst. Define your risk. 

And don’t trade just to trade. 

Wait for your pitch. 

The market’s serving a full menu this week. 

You don’t need to eat everything.

Keep it trim,
— Jeff Zananiri

Things are moving fast out there.

Catch Aaron Hunziker live Friday at 10 a.m. ET as he breaks down what’s hot, what’s risky, and what’s next.

👉 Don’t wait — grab your spot now.

*Past performance does not indicate future results.