It feels quiet out there, kind of like the market’s taking a nap.
Volatility is low, with the VIX sitting at 14.22 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Stocks are grinding sideways, and every talking head is chirping about “low risk environments” and “calm conditions.”
Let me tell you something I learned early on working at Bear Stearns:
Markets don’t go quiet because nothing’s happening. They go quiet because something big is about to.
Right now, we’re in one of those slow-motion traps that chews up retail traders and spits them out. Because when things feel quiet, most folks start selling premium.
They’re bored. They want to “harvest Theta.” They figure the market’s not moving, so they’ll just collect a little each day like a vending machine.
That works — until it doesn’t.
And when it breaks, it breaks fast. You’ll go from clipping dimes to losing dollars overnight.
Back at the firm, I saw the same setup in the S&P.
We had this long, tight base. VIX was hovering near multi-year lows. Everybody was asleep.
The whole floor at the time was talking about how “rangebound” the market was.
But something didn’t smell right to me.
Option flow started shifting. Skews began tilting. Traders were loading puts, even though nothing had happened yet.
That was the tell.
Smart money was getting long premium while retail was falling asleep.
So, I started buying premium too, targeting a few key levels.
People thought I was nuts. One guy told me, “Jeff, you’re lighting money on fire.”
Then the jobs number hit. Big miss. Futures tanked 50 handles before the bell.
Just like that, premiums exploded.
The whole base unwound in a day.
That “boring” market handed out one of the best trades of the year if you were long premium and positioned for a move.
Right now, I’m seeing some of those same signs. Here’s what to look for.
Look Sharp
Right now, we’ve got low IV across the board, and call buyers stepping in on weakness.
Put volume is creeping up even though nothing’s breaking. Indexes are coiling tighter and tighter like a spring.
This is when you’ve got to be on your toes.
Because the market wants you to fall asleep. It wants you to think there’s nothing going on.
That’s the trap.
So how do you spot it?
Simple: When IV is low — but option flow says “something’s coming” — you better be paying attention.
I’m not saying go out and blindly buy calls or puts.
What I’m saying is look for the setups where movement is due, even if the chart looks dead.
Here’s how I do it:
- I scan for coiled patterns — tight consolidation, low volume, multiple inside days
- I check implied volatility — if it’s scraping the floor, that’s a yellow flag
- Then I look at the option flow. Are traders buying lopsided size into expiration? Are they front-loading weeklies? Are they hedging out of nowhere?
When you line all that up, you’ve got a shot at catching a big move before it happens.
But you have to be patient.
Most traders lose here because they want to see something now. They hate sitting through boredom, so they sell premium, make pennies, and get steamrolled when the move hits.
Don’t fall for it.
Right now, this market is setting a trap. It’s pretending to be calm.
But the premium buyers are already sniffing out the shift.
So stay sharp and get long premium before the slap hits.
Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri
P.S. And if you really want to spot potential wins, join us Wednesday at noon ET for a special Gamma Code seminar with Danny Phee.
He’ll walk through the setups driving real results in this market — what’s working, what to avoid, and how he’s positioning right now.
If you’re serious about trading options with precision, this is one session you’ll want to catch.
*Past performance does not indicate future results
