Good morning, traders,

I’ve been around long enough to know that whenever the U.S. government starts cutting revenue-sharing deals with private companies, it’s worth paying attention.

Not because I think Uncle Sam suddenly found a flair for capitalism but because these moves often signal that policy and profit are about to collide — and the market doesn’t like surprises.

This week we’re getting hit with a wave of major economic data, but it’s all happening against a backdrop that’s raising eyebrows. 

The federal government is taking a far more hands-on approach with certain industries than we’ve seen in a while, and the way it’s happening matters for traders.

Take Nvidia and AMD. 

Both have agreed to hand over 15% of their revenue from certain China sales in exchange for export licenses to sell high-end chips there. 

On paper, the deal makes sense: The companies get to keep selling to a massive market they were about to lose, and the government gets a cut. 

But for traders, the bigger question is: Does this set a precedent? 

If Washington likes this model, other sectors could be next.

And if they are, what does it mean? 

Here are a few ideas, plus market-moving data to watch for this week. 

The Public-Private Shuffle

Another example of the U.S. government getting involved in the private sector is with rare earth miner MP Materials. 

The Department of Defense is dropping $400 million to grab a 15% equity stake, becoming the company’s largest shareholder. 

That’s not a grant or subsidy — it’s an outright ownership position, with more investment options baked in. 

Translation: The government is inserting itself directly into the supply chain for critical materials. 

That could change the risk profile — and valuations — in the whole rare earth space.

And in case you thought this was limited to tech and mining, look at what just happened with U.S. Steel. 

Japan’s Nippon Steel finally bought the company after initial resistance and national security reviews … but not without the U.S. government securing a “golden share.” That gives the Trump administration veto power over company decisions.

Whether you like these moves or not, they all point to a market where government influence is expanding into boardrooms and balance sheets. 

If you’re trading, you have to account for that — because political risk just got a little more direct.

This Week’s Market Movers

All of this is happening as we head into one of the most data-heavy weeks of the summer. 

The numbers coming in will shape how traders think about interest rates, inflation trends, and consumer health.

Here’s what’s on deck:

• Tuesday: CPI (Consumer Price Index) — This is the big one. Inflation has been cooling, but the market is hypersensitive to any upside surprise. A hotter-than-expected CPI could push rate-cut hopes further out than September.
  
• Thursday: Jobless Claims and PPI (Producer Price Index) — Jobless claims give us a read on labor market softness, while PPI shows inflation from the producer side. Both can move rate expectations, especially if they line up with CPI surprises.
  
• Friday: Retail Sales, Preliminary Consumer Sentiment, and Import Price Index — This is where we see whether consumers are still spending or tightening up. The sentiment number is also a wild card; a sharp drop can spook equities even if the spending data looks solid.

Context Clues

Put it together and you’ve got a market that’s not only reacting to data … but to a shifting government-business dynamic that could hit specific sectors in unpredictable ways.

This week isn’t just about the numbers, it’s about context. 

If CPI comes in hot and traders start thinking Washington’s going to start revenue-sharing with more industries, you could see money rotate hard out of affected sectors. 

If the data shows cooling inflation and steady consumers, that backdrop could help certain names rally — but you still need to know who’s in the government’s crosshairs.

Bottom line: Watch the data, but don’t ignore the deals. 

Policy is becoming a tradable event — and in my experience, the traders who catch that first make the real money.

Stay street smart,
Jeff Zananiri

P.S. Speaking of real money, Aaron Hunziger is going live in the APEX War Room this Thursday at 4 p.m. to break down the trades he’s watching and the setups he’s targeting right now. 

You’ll see exactly how he’s positioning for the next market move — and why timing is everything this week. 

Don’t miss your chance to watch him map out his strategy in real time.

*Past performance does not indicate future results